With the recent announcement of the expansion of the Henderson Shipyard for shipbuilding and submarine maintenance, I thought I would take a look at the impact on what I think is the largest area of infill in all of WA: Perth's south-west region. In doing so, the scale of the development and employment opportunities in the area became evident.

The employment drivers

Naval Precinct
Roger Cook indicated the new naval announcement would bring 5,000 - 10,000 new jobs over the next decade, all out of the southern part of the Henderson shipyard which is approximately 25km south west of Perth. He also said it could rival the resources sector as a major employer, which is a stretch because the resources sector currently employs approximately 160,000 people. Regardless, it is a lot, and defence jobs can produce between 1.5 - 2 jobs for every navy position, creating an employer multiplier effect in the area.

Fremantle Container Port
In addition to the Naval Precinct, the proposed relocation of the Fremantle Container Port to the western end of Anketell Road will create many new jobs. Currently, Fremantle Port employs only 300 people, but thousands more are employed in the surrounding businesses. It's therefore not unreasonable to say the new port may create another 5,000 - 10,000+ new jobs.

Latitude 32
Latitude 32 (formerly Hope Valley Wattleup Redevelopment Project) is over 1,400 hectares of industrial land that is expected to create around 15,000+ new jobs once complete.

Based on this, we could see at least an additional 30,000-40,000+ jobs in the Western Trade Coast area. For comparison, this is around the same amount of people that both Rio Tinto and BHP employ in WA (office and mining operations), and the northern parts of Perth just don't have an employment base like this.

Below is a rudimentary map I've made of what the area may look like 10 - 20 years into the future:

White - Industrial
Hope Valley/Wattleup industrial area, now marketed as Lattitude 32.

Green - bush forever
Thomsons Lake Nature Reserve, Beeliar wetlands and other reserves.

Light Blue - residential development underway
Residential or potential residential areas.

Pink - rural, likely to be industrial
These areas are generaly zoned rural but likely to be rezoned industrial, due to proximity to industrial areas and prevailing winds.

Red - Alcoa Tailings Ponds
In 2023 approval was granted to expand the residue area, but a closure of the refinery was then announced. Regardless, it will take many years to rehabilitate to any form of use, if doable at all.

The large swathes of land zoned 'Bush Forever', industrial or otherwise unusable will then prohibit nearby residential infill, pushing residents further out towards the freeway and down the coast to Rockingham.

Based on the above, I conclude that residential areas surrounding this industrial infill zone such as Coogee, Yangebup, Anketell, Hammond Park, Orelia and Medina will see significant growth as they will be some of the closest areas to this new employment, both from a residential and commercial perspective. On average, people drive 12km to work in Perth, which is the longest distance travelled of any capital city in Australia, and these are some of the only undeveloped areas within that 12km drive time. Once people start living further out than these suburbs they may have to drive an above average distance to work, which becomes increasingly unattractive the further out you go.

The state government has also released 484 hectares of land around Karnup as a major development opportunity. However, that is around 28km drive from Henderson which is well above the average drive distance to work. While there will still be significant takeup, that distance may reduce its attractiveness for future workers as compared to closer suburbs. There are many small and large developers who are working to deliver housing and commercial properties in pockets around this precinct, but due to the restricted land uses around these upcoming employment hubs, this may prove difficult into the future.

Perth's south-west will soon be host to a convergence of mega-projects not seen before in WA, comparable to and exceeding projects seen on the east coast, and there will need to be a significant push to build enough homes to house these workers nearby.